I just got off a wonderful online seminar that discussed the fall of the pen and paper RPG market. It essentially pointed out several factors, all of which happened at roughly the same time – a literal nuclear bomb of events:
[list][*]OGL and PDF
The open license of the d20 system in combination with PDF press, caused a massive oversaturation of material – most of which lacks creativity and innovation.
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[]Dollar in Flux
Many of the premier RPG publishers were based in Canada and Europe. As the dollar value fluxed violently, it got too expensive for them to continue turning a profit against the domestic US publishers who could sell at cheaper prices.
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[]Too Much Corporate Influence
This predominantly concerns entities such as WotC and White Wolf, who bought tons of intellectual properties and turned them upside down, alienating hardcore gamers who preferred the old “by gamers for gamers” mentality, instead of the “gamers buy for companies” operation.
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[]Too Much Rebooting too Soon
Tied to the item above: constant revisions of the same material, forcing to buy an entire line all over again, disenfranchised consumers. 3.0 and 3.5 anyone?
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[]Loss of Quality Control
Do you really think WotC play tested those Expansion and Prestige Classes? Do you really think White Wolf made sure all those new Bloodlines meshed together without causing issues? Do you really think the newest RIFTS World Book doesn’t make the previous obsolete? Yea… me neither.
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[]MMO and Console RPG’s
Does anything really need to be said?
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[]Lack of Evolution
Until very recently, mainstream RPG’s stuck with the classical “Tolkien Fantasy” and “Frank Herbert Space Opera” ¬ñ however Japanese anime and Chinese cinema had made a major cultural impact during the 80’s and 90’s. For a time there was an extreme niche market for 'em (Mekton, BESM, Robotech, etc) ¬ñ but the previously mentioned factors above killed 'em. It was about a year or two until the void was filled by the “Corporate Giants” ¬ñ but by then it was too late.
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[]Mass Production of Table Top Miniatures
Companies like Rackham and Games Workshop quickly captured the “big spending” hardcore gamers. It also was more visually appealing for newbies to watch and partake in tactical battles with their own eyes and hands, than listening to a bunch of guys describing what happened in their imagination (also less paperwork).[/*][/list]
There were some other issues pointed out, but these appeared to be the major ones. The discussion ended with questions if the RPG market can be saved. It was kinda iffy on that. Things like Iron Kingdoms were mentioned as awesome sources of hope – however the abandonment of the d20 system by WotC was cited as a failure, since MANY games (like the aforementioned Iron Kingdoms) had heavily invested in d20 - but are now being left behind - making the IP holders angry and weary of supporting table top RPG again. Also many great properties that were in d20 format – like The Red Star, Ravenloft, and Heavy Gear – are currently abandoned or inactive.