Quiz: market stats

Visual Novel Community Archive, 2000-2009
#1

hmmm, thats hard to answer since we don’t have the complete data about your exp. but then it is just a guess…

1- hmmm, maybe about 160 on pre-order from both title.

2-hmmm, depending on how long it takes to produce the game… I should say about 800 preorder for each game to justify.
And as for the japanese market to get interested in the american market…well my estimate would be about 2000.

3- Darn, it depends on your expenses…If there are 20 people working on peach princess…I roughly estimate it that you should sell at about 5000 in the first 90 days…then again it depends on the titles you are selling and the reviews, and piracy , etc.

4- Do you even sell 1000 units? considering the fact that piracy is killing every software company.

hmmm, if you were to give us more info… I could get a very close estimate.

p.s I work in accounts payable in a chain of restaurants so I do have some exp in calculating costs.

#2
quote:
Originally posted by Kumiko Kamiyama:
  1. How many preorder copies of Little My Maid, Gibo, and Brave Soul do you think Peach Princess has on record as of March 1st 2002? Give a range guesstimate with the lower and upper bounds separated by 20 or less.

    -I'd probably say at the most about 200 each.

  2. How many preorder copies of these titles do you think Peach Princess should have in order for (a) the cost of producing the titles to be justified; in other words, just breaking even, including time spent producing them, running the business during that time, paying salaries, taxes, etc as well as physical mastering costs, etc, and (b) the titles to be seen as a profitable business venture for the Japanese companies?

    -Preorder of about 3000 to 5000 copies.

  3. On average, how many copies of any title do you think Peach Princess sells within the first 90 days after the product begins shipping (including preorders)?

    -700 tops.

  4. On average, how many copies of a title do you think should sell within 90 days after it begins shipping in order to counteract piracy and still demonstrate a profitable market demand to both the domestic company (us) and the Japanese companies who own the rights to the title and who created it in the first place?
    [/LIST]

    -Should Sell about 5000 copies.(Though 10,000 would be preferable)

    Kumiko is curious to see the responses...


    [This message has been edited by Kumiko Kamiyama (edited 03-22-2002).]

#3

With how much you mention it, I am going to guess the numbers are pretty low. With this in mind and what I’ve seen as far as stats for the poll on mosaic version of a new game.

1. LMM=70-80, Gibo=50-60, Brave Soul=130-140

2. preorders to break even, a)Hmm about 1000, this is probably 10 times what you actually are getting though. b)They likely want to see 2500+ in the huge english speaking market of 600 million+ people.

3. Lets see, you only made 300 copies of the LE of Critical Point, and likely had a vision of being able to sell them in 90 days to help offset the cost for the regular edition. so that will be my guess.

4. In a market as big as this one, in the first 90 days, in which the largest portion of sales for a title happens, you would like to see 10,000+ units sold, 3000 is probably a more realistic short term goal though. Again we see a factor of ten as the difference.

We are spreading the news as fast as we can. I hope it will be in time.

#4

Okay, this is way too much thinking…

1. Actually I’m thinking less than a 100 preorders for all the titles combined. From stuff I’ve seen in the past, preorders don’t usually pick up until a firm release date is given and even then it’s still usually poor until you start nearing that actual release date, like only a few weeks away.

2. This I’m really vague on. Most likely in the thousands for breaking even. It’s really hard to say since the only number estimates I know are for developing and producing games, from conception to market which is slightly different here. As for the Japanese companies to get interested, I’d guess about 5,000 at least for preorder.

3. Hmm, maybe 400-500, somewhere between there. I’m sure it varies greatly depending on the title. Lots of variables affecting this.

4. Should sell? Several thousand at the very least.

Well those are my estimates. Wish I could give better or most optimistic ones…

#5

It all entirely guess work, but here goes…

1. Little My Maid - 120, Gibo - 60, Brave Soul - 120 (I’m also considering the fact that Little My Maid has been on pre-order the longest) - (Add one to all of those - I haven’t pre-ordered mine yet)

2. (a) 1200, (b) 2400.

3. 350.

4. 5000

btw, which game, besides the Regualr Edition of Critical Point, should be next up for release?

#6

btw, if anyone wants to try and wheedle amazon (It’s unlikely, but it could happen… their content policy says “Furthermore, unrated erotic videos and DVDs, properly censored erotic artwork and magazines of the type you’d find at a typical bookstore are also permitted. All Auctions and zShops items that contain nudity, graphic titles, and descriptions must be sufficiently concealed with censor strips.” ) the request form for new products is at
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/subst/stores/catalog-builder/index.html

CP LE is still censored, so it should be saleable, right?

#7
quote:
Originally posted by papillon:
btw, if anyone wants to try and wheedle amazon (It's unlikely, but it *could* happen... their content policy says "Furthermore, unrated erotic videos and DVDs, properly censored erotic artwork and magazines of the type you'd find at a typical bookstore are also permitted. All Auctions and zShops items that contain nudity, graphic titles, and descriptions must be sufficiently concealed with censor strips." ) the request form for new products is at
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/subst/stores/catalog-builder/index.html

CP LE is still censored, so it should be saleable, right? [img]http://princess.cybrmall.net/ubb/smile.gif[/img]

Actually all of them should be carried because they're all rated by the ESRB.

#8

Well, if enough people fill out the “I would like you to carry this product” form… we can always hope.

I dunno how easy that form is to find for an average surfer, which is why I posted the link. I couldn’t find it myself, but I have a friend who works there (programmer, not purchasing decisions maker) and he’d actually worked on the design of that form so he pointed me to it.

#9

Kumiko, about piracy:


Would it be legal if you had people scouting around the web and locating these sites so that they could be terminated?

of course that this would be impossible to achieve… Shut one down and another will take its place…

#10
quote:
Kumiko, about piracy:

Would it be legal if you had people scouting around the web and locating these sites so that they could be terminated?

of course that this would be impossible to achieve... Shut one down and another will take its place....

legal? sure whynot
thats what i do...contact webhosters and tell them about people misusing their services...

sure...you'll never kill them all, but what really frustrates me is that a webseach brings up pirate sites before the PeachPrincess site
thats what im really trying to stop...not the piracy itself(it'll just go underground) but the visibility

[This message has been edited by exoarchaeologist (edited 03-27-2002).]

#11
quote:
Originally posted by Validor:
Kumiko, about piracy:
Would it be legal if you had people scouting around the web and locating these sites so that they could be terminated?

of course that this would be impossible to achieve... Shut one down and another will take its place.... [img]http://princess.cybrmall.net/ubb/frown.gif[/img]

When push comes to shove, they'll go underground. You don't always need a site to put pirated stuff up for downloading when there are p2p programs (and dozens of servers supporting them) that people use to trade illegal stuff.

#12
quote:
Originally posted by yyoshi:
When push comes to shove, they'll go underground. You don't always need a site to put pirated stuff up for downloading when there are p2p programs (and dozens of servers supporting them) that people use to trade illegal stuff.

True but in the meantime we can try to cut down on the number of sites in general. Every little bit helps...

#13

Making more things illegal won’t stop people. To stop people from doing something, you have to stop them from wanting to do it.

Say this stupid (and I’m sorry, but it IS stupid) bill passes and all new devices must have protection built in. Ignoring the practicality aspects of doing that completely, since I’m not a techie - what good would it do? Do you think everyone who currently owns a computer is going to throw it away and buy a new one that will do less than their current machine?

I have nothing against the development of secure media. Obviously it would be a good thing for game companies to try and develop a kind of media that can’t be copied - and I say ‘game’ rather than ‘software’ because with general software applications, people would not be happy if they were required to leave the SecureCD in the drive all the time for each program they were trying to use. For a game, people are willing to go this far.

But trying to cripple every function at every processing step to prevent any illicit use - well, it’s either impossible or it removes half the functionality of the computer. Sure, you can stop users from copying your files - just prevent them from copying files at all! And don’t forget to prevent them from creating files, because after all if they can create them they can reproduce data in them.

The bill is moronic. Yes, consumers need to recognise the rights of creators and not simply steal everything that suits their fancy. Likewise, businesses also need to recognise the rights of consumers. Products need to allow reasonable functionality. Copyright holders need to have a use-it-or-lose-it clause to prevent people from sitting on things and barring anyone else’s attempts to distribute it if they have no intention of distributing it themselves.

Compensation, not control. Creators (and sponsoring businesses) should be compensated for the use of their products. They should not be allowed to maintain complete control over the use of the products.

#14

I don’t know what this new bill is exactly, but as a programmer, I’ll say one thing: Anything is possible in reguards to computer technology. I’ve seen some of the very best copy protections and encryption methods cracked - Not just PC copy protections either. Simply put, there isn’t any way in my view to prevent the copying of data. I do agree with you though Kumiko, people should use technology responsibily and should be able to be trusted with it. It’s a shame really.

#15
quote:
Originally posted by Kumiko Kamiyama:
Two things, but after this correction, let's get back to the specific topic - if anyone wants to take this anywhere else, email Kumiko privately.

Heh okay then... [img]http://princess.cybrmall.net/ubb/wink.gif[/img]

So out of curiosity, has any of us come even close to being correct in our answers? You don't have to say which guesses to which questions but it'd be nice to know if we're totally off-base or not so far.

#16


If you insist, I’ll take most of it to private, but I do want to post one link:
http://www.spectator.org/AmericanSpectatorArticles/Lessig/Control.htm

I beg anyone interested in the topic of copyright and control to read the whole thing.

#17

Hmm, I think that has been posted here before (don’t know how long ago, through…

#18